Patrick Moore's Baobab Tree Claims Are False

In the first chapter of Patrick Moore’s Fake Invisible Catastrophes and Threats of Doom, he decries a June 2018 news cycle that was based on a study published in the journal Plant Nature, a well-respected botany journal. Such nature, science and environment stories are commonplace. They are reactions to published science reports, and thousands of them are written daily. Every day, there are articles condensing a study about the decline of a frog, or a fish, or a habitat, as it relates to climate change. This particular study would not have been all that notable, except that its subject—the largest baobabs in the world—captivated the attention of the world because…everybody loves giant and ancient baobabs. To people around the world, baobabs are a symbol of wild Africa.

It is important to note here that Patrick Moore is actually attempting to discredit the science that links the impact of climate-fueled drought on arid regions…but he relies purely on the headline as his evidence that the research must be bunk. However, he didn’t read the actual report. 

So, let’s focus on the science.

Beginning in 2005, a group of researchers sought to better understand how the largest and oldest African baobabs, the largest angiosperms on Earth, can reach such enormous size and age. The study was possible only because of new techniques. 

In the report that appeared in Plant Nature, they explain the purpose of their research: 

In 2005 we started an in-depth research programme to elucidate several controversial or poorly understood aspects of the architecture, growth and age of the African baobab. The research is based on our new approach, which is not limited to fallen specimens, but allows live specimens to be investigated and dated. The approach consists of accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating of small wood samples collected from inner cavities and/or from different areas of their trunk/stems.

Over a 12 year period, the team studied the largest African baobabs. They write:

In the period 2005–2017, we investigated and dated practically all known very large and potentially old African baobab specimens (over 60 trees) from northern and southern continental Africa, the African islands and outside Africa.

There are only so many baobabs that are enormous and ancient. But something happened during their research that was worth writing about in a research paper—although it was not the purpose of their 12 year study. Of these 60 trees that they were able to identify by their girth, height and volume, and by their radiocarbon age as the largest and oldest, they directly observed that 8 of the 13 oldest trees and 5 of the 6 largest trees had died, or that at least the largest parts of their stems had died.

They explain:

The deaths of the majority of the oldest and largest African bao-babs over the past 12 years is an event of an unprecedented magnitude. These deaths were not caused by an epidemic and there has also been a rapid increase in the apparently natural deaths of many other mature baobabs. We suspect that the demise of monumental baobabs may be associated at least in part with significant modifications of climate conditions that affect southern Africa in particular. However, further research is necessary to support or refute this supposition.

Now, Patrick Moore, who did not read the actual research, claims “The story is so fake that it does not take a genius to see through it.”

To him, it is completely natural that the majority of these very large and ancient trees all died within 12 years of each other, claiming that if there were 10,000 of these trees, that the population would be stable. He then cites the estimated age of the oldest tree—2500 years—and claims that these trees must have died simply because of old age. As a climate change denier, Moore will do anything to use headlines to make climate science sound fake.

While Moore assumed all the fallen trees were 2500 years old, the average radiocarbon dated age of this group was 1,533 years, with some of them being under 1000 years old. For African baobabs, that would mean they were old, but not at the end of their natural lifespans. 

If 8 of the 13 most famous actors over age 50 all died within a month in areas all over the world, Patrick Moore would say they died of old age. But the rest of us would presume there was more than coincidence to the statistical anomaly, and want further investigation.

But, it should be noted that the researchers were not studying climate, they were studying tree ages and attempting to learn the secrets of their longevity. They only hypothesized that climate played a role in the demise of these large and ancient trees, since disease was not present in any of the die-offs. This was the sole sentence in the study about climate change: We suspect that the demise of monumental baobabs may be associated at least in part with significant modifications of climate conditions that affect southern Africa in particular.

This sort of hypothesis invites further study, but to Patrick Moore, this study, and the dozens of mainstream publications that reported on the study, it was all fake!

What Does the Science Say?

In the sixth 2023 IPCC Assessment, the working group reports on the changing temperatures in Southern Africa, where all of the largest and oldest baobabs live:

Mean annual temperatures over the region increased by between 1.04°C and 1.44°C over the period 1961–2015 depending on the observational dataset and, in northern Botswana and Zimbabwe, they have increased by 1.6°C–1.8°C between 1961–2010. The annual number of hot days have increased in southern Africa over the last four decades and there is increasing evidence of increased heat stress impacting agriculture and human health.

The IPCC reports have highlighted the impacts of climate change on plants and trees in arid regions as well as specifically in Africa. So, broadly, we understand several things about climate change and the botany of arid regions like those suitable for the African baobab.

Arid regions, as we know, are characterized by low and irregular rainfall. Climate change is exacerbating these conditions, leading to increased drought stress on plants and trees. This can result in reduced growth, lower reproductive success, and increased mortality in these species.

Climate change can lead to shifts in the distribution of plant and tree species in arid regions. Some species may be unable to adapt or migrate quickly enough to survive in changing conditions, while others may expand their ranges into areas that were previously unsuitable.

Changes in the abundance and distribution of plant species can have cascading effects on arid ecosystems. This can impact the availability of food and habitat for wildlife, including herbivores that rely on these plants.

Climate change can make plants and trees in arid regions more susceptible to pests and diseases, which can further stress these species and lead to population declines.

Climate change can alter the availability of water in arid regions, affecting the ability of plants and trees to survive and reproduce. Changes in precipitation patterns, as well as increased evaporation due to higher temperatures, can impact water availability for these species.

The cumulative effects of climate change on plants and trees in arid regions can lead to a loss of biodiversity in these ecosystems, as some species may struggle to adapt or survive. So, hypothesizing that climate may be behind the death of these giant baobabs is the right place to start.

Respected science journalist John R. Platt interviewed the lead researcher from the baobab team, and in Scientific American, explained the link between climate change and the future of baobabs: 

It turns out that rainfall patterns in Africa, where all baobab trees can be found, have completely changed as a result of global warming. Since towering baobab trees require and often store enormous amounts of water, this has put them into a dangerous situation at critical times of their annual cycle. As lead researcher Adrian Patrut told Ed Yong at The Atlantic, “If they don’t have enough rain when they flush their leaves or produce their flowers, they die.”

This isn’t the only climate-related threat to baobabs. Research published in 2013 revealed that global warming will soon make many current baobab habitats unsuitable for many of the big trees, and not just the gigantic elders. Not only that, the research also showed that rapid human development has already restricted where baobab trees can grow, leaving them with nowhere to go once their last-remaining habitats can no longer support them. As a result, at least one of the eight baobab species could be pushed into extinction.

Is Patrick Moore Correct that the Media Exaggerated the Story?

Patrick Moore claims that the media exaggerated this story as an environmental scare tactic — that the media wrote exaggerated doom and gloom headlines because there is a conspiracy between ‘the activists, the media, the politicians, and the scientists, all of whom have a huge financial and/or political interest in’ fake doom and gloom. 

He then stated that many of the articles showed baobab trees without leaves, because they wanted to falsely illustrate that they were ‘dead or dying.’ In fact, baobabs only display leaves in late summer, and are considered by some to be leafless trees because they are so often bare. And even when they do have leaves, visually, it’s difficult to see the leaves in a photo until they have fully leafed out. Showing a leafless baobab is not an editorial strategy to deceive an audience. Rather, that’s how baobabs actually look!

So, to put a nail in the coffin, here are the most-read headlines about this brief, and whether the accompanying photo(s) showed a leaved or leafless baobab. Clearly, these headlines (and the articles themselves) accurately reported on the contents of the brief.

The original brief headline in Nature Plants:
The demise of the largest and oldest African baobabs

CNN:
Ancient Baobab trees in Southern Africa are dying. Scientists suspect climate change
Images: Actual images of the fallen trees. Leaves and no leaves.

Phys.org:
'Shocking' die-off of Africa's oldest baobabs: study Image: No leaves

The Atlantic:
Trees That Have Lived for Millennia Are Suddenly Dying
Image: Leaves

Popular Mechanics:
The World's Ancient Baobab Trees Are Dying, And We Don't Know Why
Image: Small leaves

Earth.com:
Famously resilient baobab trees have been dying off
Image: Leaves

USA Today: Africa's oldest baobab trees are dying at an unprecedented rate, and climate change may be to blame Image: Leaves

National Geographic: Africa’s Oldest Trees are Dying, and Scientists are Stumped
Image: Leaves

BBC:
Scientists shocked by mysterious deaths of ancient trees
Images: Leaves

New York Times:
Scientists shocked by mysterious deaths of ancient trees Images: Multiple photos of leaved and non-leaved baobabs taken by New York Times photojournalists. Bravo!

Did Patrick Moore bamboozle his readers in Chapter 1 of his book? You bet he did.

Read my rebuttal of the other Patrick Moore chapters here:

Exposing Patrick Moore
Patrick Moore Credibility
Chapter 1 Fact-check: Baobab Trees
Chapter 2 Fact-check: Coral Bleaching
Chapter 3 Fact-check: Carbon Dioxide
Chapter 4 Fact-check: Polar Bears
Chapter 5 Fact-check: Estimated Threats to Biodiversity
Chapter 6 Fact-check: The Great Pacific Garbage Patch
Chapter 7 Fact-check: Genetically Modified Foods
Chapter 8 Fact-check: Nuclear Radiation
Chapter 9 Fact-check: Wildfires Chapter 10 Fact-check: Ocean Acidification Chapter 11 Fact-check: Walruses